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    Brexit: The Setting Sun

      So I dunno how many non-Brits here have been following the shambolic proceedings of the UK's withdrawal from the European Union, colloquially referred to as Brexit. But as our lord and saviour Lord Buckethead aptly put it, it's a shitshow lol

      after nearly two years of fruitless negotiations between the UK and the EU, the moment of truth has arrived. Prime Minister Theresa May has gotten a deal agreed with the EU. I haven't read it in full (it's like 500 pages lol), but it seems to be the worst of both worlds.
      Remainers aren't happy with it because it removes any of our influence with the EU, and will be catastrophically bad for our economy.
      Brexiters don't like it because it still keeps in line with some EU regulations.
      The DUP (who have propped up May's government until now) don't like it because it keeps Northern Ireland in a special situation separate from the rest of the UK (something that is necessary to prevent the emergence of a hard border between NI and the Republic of Ireland, which nobody on either side of it wants)
      Donald Trump doesn't like it because reasons and has said that that it may scupper a chance of the UK getting a super duper mega awesome trade deal like Brexiters promised we would get.

      In order to be implemented, the Brexit deal must be approved by parliament. That seems extraordinarily unlikely at the moment. Here's a neat infographic from the BBC summing it up:

      tl;dr unless a lot of people change their minds before 11 Dec (when the vote is scheduled), chances are it aint gonna pass

      And if/when that happens, what happens next is anyone's guess.

      Will May resign? Will she face a vote of no confidence? Will there be an election? Will there be a new referendum now that a lot of people who voted leave may have realised they've been duped and that holy shit this is a fucking terrible idea? Will we leap off the cliff into a nuclear Brexit ie leave with no deal, an act of unthinkable stupidity even by Brexiter standards?

      Who knows.

      May has until now been a survivor, even surviving losing her majority in the Commons as the result of an early election she called out of hubris. Will this be what brings her down for good? After all, her predecessor David Cameron (one of the worst prime ministers the UK has ever elected) was noted as being incredibly lucky wrt elections; it was only when Brexit happened that his luck ran out. Has May's time come as well? Who knows.

      In short:

      Discuss the UK's self-inflicted demise here!

      OH SHIT

      for those confused, not too long ago Parliament passed a legally-binding resolution that the government must release any Brexit legal advice "in full". The government has not done so for unknown reasons (though it's speculated because it may show things that would further damage the bill's already-slim chances of passing, such as being tied to EU customs rules indefinitely). They have published an "overview", but not the full details.

      And in doing so, they may have been in contempt of Parliament.

      BBC News wrote:

      [Speaker of the Commons] John Bercow said "there is an arguable case" that a contempt of Parliament has been committed.

      It means MPs will debate and vote on Tuesday on whether or not to refer the case to the Standards Committee.

      This is likely to delay the start of the debate on Theresa May's Brexit deal.
      What this means for May, her deal, and her government remains to be seen.
    • Lots of Brexshit news today! Here's a roundup of everything that's happened so far:
      -Theresa May's government has suffered several defeats in the Commons.

      Tuesday's vote, in which 26 Tory MPs rebelled, could potentially tilt the balance of power between government and Parliament if, as expected, MPs push for a "Plan B" alternative to Mrs May's deal and also seek to prevent any chance of a no-deal exit.

      Mr Grieve, who has expressed support for another Brexit referendum, told Channel 4 News he was not seeking to "guarantee a particular outcome" if Mrs May's deal went down.

      But he said it would "allow the UK time to consider its options" - including potentially re-starting negotiations with the EU or giving the public the final say.

      In other words, when/if parliament votes down her deal in a week, they'll be able to exert more influence on the next course of action.

      Other news:
      The Pound is going down, down, down! On the bright side, for me at least, my dollar will go farther if I visit over New Year's!

      Remember UKIP? Well, since being electorally annihilated after fulfilling the reason for their party's existence in June 2016, they've apparently veered even further to the right, to the point of being essentially an unholy resurrection of the BNP and EDL. It's gotten so bad that Nigel Farage quit the party. And if Farage is leaving a party for being too racist, that really says everything.

      The former governor of the Bank of England likened May's deal to appeasement in the 1930's. He said that the political class has failed the country and that a fresh vote is needed to end this waking nightmare.

      Finally, in a non-binding motion by the European Court of Justice, the UK should be able to unilaterally cancel Brexit. Not concrete, but a good sign!
    • Brexit is a complete joke, I wouldn't be shocked if it was canned. The referendum was not legally binding, and they are just pretending that they heard the will of the people, to save their political career. Any government worth their salt would ask for at least a clear strong majority, at least 60% if not more, to make such drastic changes that could potentially be financially devastating for the country. My salary is already worth much less than it used to. I am frankly shocked, because I thought British politicians are less slimy than Greek ones (where I come from) and would take this more seriously. Instead what I'm seeing is something that would never happen in Greece, because our constitution does not allow for such major changes to be done via referendums as people cannot possibly know the full implications and are driven too much by emotion to think logically.
      "Can't post that on a Christian forum."
    • No Tory, least of all Theresa May, is ever going to call it off because all they care about is staying in power. If they call it off they lose hardcore Leave votes, they lost most of Remain a long time ago with this BS, and Labour gained on them a lot last election. This shows the problem with politics when a party chooses their own ambition and success over the good of the country they're meant to have the best interests of. That's all that's happening here, because if they were putting the country first they'd have pulled the plug on this farce about a year ago and told UKIP, who is just the BNP Jr at this point, to fuck off.

      I try and stay positive but without a General Election or another referendum I don't see this being stopped because fuck us, stopping this is bad for the Conservatives. And your 6-figure earning Tory isn't going to be affected by the recession that'll hit afterward. So why care?

      I hope it does stop. But how much of this constant proof of how terrible an idea this is and how incompetent the Government is before public opinion shifts?
    • Lol.

      This is why I always default to asking about someone's current investment position when they start making hard predictions about the market. Properly constructed, a bet is the most honest form of communication possible. Nothing an armchair economist says means anything compared to where they put their money.
      Although postsocratics like St. Augustine and Judith Butler explored a diverse set of ethical and metaphysical ideas, their unifying feature as a movement was a principled refusal to speculate upon which of the four elements the world was made out of.

      boxes is the best human and I am going to get her a kitten or 2 kittens

      The post was edited 1 time, last by Foo ().

    • So, just to summarize:

      The British don't want a hard Brexit, there's no majority for it.
      The British don't want a soft Brexit, there's no majority for it.
      The British don't want to stay in the EU, there's no majority for it.
      Get your shit together! Jeez!

      This is exactly why you don't compress complex economic questions about entangled relationships into a people's vote and a simple Yes/No-question!
      This parliamentary outcome was expected, but I am still shocked that the British wasted TWO WHOLE YEARS!
      Then, May got at least a treaty, at least something (!) and now they still rejected it! I strongly feel like a lot of British are living in a delusion, that Europe will sooner or later bend to their will and desires. The European Union has from the very beginning made the rules and its position very clear!

      If you want the benefits of EU membership, then accept its rules!
      If you don't want its rules, then don't ask for benefits!
      You can't have it both ways!

      I'm honestly getting more and more frustrated, because this is just a surreal spectacle the British are playing... I have bet in favour of a hard Brexit on 29th of March for months now. (If I lose, I'll change my Avatar picture or something!) And I by now am somewhat going to be disappointed if the Brits just pull their envoked article off on 28th and everything stays the way it is - except we wasted 2 years of nerves, money, paper and the conservatives are still going to blame the EU for everything.
      Dear British (or rather, English and Welsh): You wanted a Brexit, I by now hope you will get a Brexit, just to see that these things are nothing to be messed with easily! Sort this mess out by yourselves! The EU can't negotiate with a partner who doesn't know what he/she wants!

      Would there really be a person qualified as prime minister who could sort out this mess? "Reject May's plan!"... and then what? What now? A second referendum? Yeah, this should have been held a dozen months ago, asking only for soft or hard Brexit! But now we don't have much time left!
      I'm bitterly disapponted in the British pro-europeans, because they could have made the lives of many people much more easy if they voted in favour of May's plan. A soft Brexit still could be better than a hard Brexit! But alas, this chance is gone now!

      *frustrated sigh*
      A pro-european German
      "A puppet that can no longer be used is mere garbage.
      This puppet's role has just ended..."
      - Majora

      My major theories:

      Counting the Population of Termina

      Counting the Population of Hyrule (OoT)

      The post was edited 2 times, last by Romano-British Medli ().

    • Well, Brexiters (and like minded people of other nations) think Germans are the ones reaping huge profits from EU. Personally, I disagree with that, or rather, it is entirely false, factually. But people want to construct a strawman of bad Germany (easily fueled by emotion due to WW2, it is mostly older people that are voting for Brexit anyway) that is currently basically ruling the entire Europe and taking their sovereignty and, basically, their money, because in the end that's what they care about.

      And that is the bottom line. If they had their pockets full they wouldn't give a damn about sovereignty, that's simply a fact. Most people have no problem compromising their beliefs for profit anyway. They would have no problem compromising their country or anything else either.
      "Can't post that on a Christian forum."
    • What a load of crock, Germany is the biggest contributor to the EU. I haven't heard this.

      Technically, the 2016 referendum was advisory and not binding. At this point, they're not compromising democracy is they say fuck it and remain, imo.

      Alternatively, I could see Scotland yeet out of the UK and become independent and a part of the EU, and let England and Wales sail their Brexit ship into the ocean.
      They clearly think differently about it:
    • Well, Germany indeed does profit from the EU a lot, and while I'm not an expert on economics, people say that the Hartz reforms (while cutting a lot of social security payments) did keep Germany competetive (or make it competetive again), so German products became cheaper (lower wages, we didn't even have minimum wage up until 2015!), so Germany could export more into European neighbouring countries, so the German industry profited. Haven't searched for data to back this often made claim up.
      We're literally in the middle of Europe. Of course we will profit a lot from reduced tariffs, a single currency and an European Single Market!

      Also, I think that a lot of British politicians, especially on the Conservatives' side, don't really care about the country and the effects a whatever Brexit will have, because they have made enough money to be prepared for the worst. Unlike the majority of population, that is....

      john_marston wrote:

      Alternatively, I could see Scotland yeet out of the UK and become independent and a part of the EU
      I'd actually love and celebrate that! :lol:
      "A puppet that can no longer be used is mere garbage.
      This puppet's role has just ended..."
      - Majora

      My major theories:

      Counting the Population of Termina

      Counting the Population of Hyrule (OoT)