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    2018 US Midterm Elections
    • In November 2018 all the seats in the US House of Representatives will be up for election as well as a third of the senate and tons of state level positions that range from state house seats to governorships.

      The primaries are already well underway and there have already been some shocking results such as Ocasio-Cortez defeating a top ranking Democrat in a New York primary, which has been seen as a symbol of the change that is occurring in the Democratic party. A change away from establishment Democrats and towards the more progressive wing of the party.

      Indeed Bernie Sanders' group Our Revolution has won 74 out of 151 primaries they've contested, a success rate of 49% which is pretty damn good for a group that was formed just 2 years ago and has considerably less money than their opponents who tend to be backed by the DNC. Another group which has only existed for 1 year, the Justice Democrats have won 23 out of 67 primaries (a success rate of 34%) with the promise to take no money from corporations and with even less financial means than Our Revolution candidates. Some of these winning candidates include Ben Jealous (Governorship of Maryland), Christine Hallquist (Governor of Vermont) and Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez.

      49% may seem like a bad result, comparing it to another insurgent group that has had great influence on a party (the Tea Party) Our Revolution is on track to match their results for their first election.…-tea-party-candidates-win With considerably less financial backing.

      It will be interesting to see how the progressive candidates do and whether there will indeed be a blue wave.

      In this thread you can discuss any of the midterm elections or news stories related to the midterms.
    • I was able to vote in NC's primaries but the more progressive candidate ended up losing the primary decisively, unfortunately. FL's primaries are actually at the end of this month but I can't vote since there's a 29-day waiting period, but I'll be able to for November. I'm in a hotly contested congressional district that flipped blue in 2016 by a few points for the first time in decades (it's a district that had to be redrawn by court order because of gerrymandering iirc) so I won't be missing this one for sure.

      I am a bit disappointed that I can't take part in the primary for this one, because the current Democrat doesn't seem too progressive: she hasn't signed on to the Medicare for All bill that's making its rounds which is far and away the most important issue for me, along with the debasement of organized labor and decline in wages for the past few decades. If democrats want to be successful in the midterms and in 2020 I think they need to be firm on healthcare in particular, that means getting behind a single-payer program (preferably Medicare for All, as it polls very favorably since people love the current form of Medicare) - simply "improving on the ACA" isn't a solution, because it doesn't address the problem of ever-increasing premiums and deductibles. Not to mention it's way too susceptible to Republican tampering, so anything the democrats do to repair the damage done by Republicans will just be undone and undermined in a future election cycle as has happened under Trump - undoing "free at the point of use" is a lot fucking harder to take away.

      That issue aside (because I don't necessarily want to start an off-topic tangent in the second post), I think based on the results from the Ohio special election it looks likely that there will be a blue wave this November, wasn't that race something like a 50 point swing to the democrats compared to 2016? The democrats retaking the House looks probable, the Senate is more of a tossup. The downticket races will be interesting to see how they unfold, given that democratic control at the state level is currently in tatters.

      The post was edited 7 times, last by Viajero de la Galaxia ().

    • I voted in the Dem primary just a few days ago! The federal offices (Rep, Senator, etc.) are all held by Dems and were uncontested in the primary (a shame since my congressman is a milquetoast Dem who voted to roll back Dodd-Frank >_> the senator's cool though), so the real race was for the Governor nomination and some other state offices. The current governor is a Dem who is one of the most unpopular governors in the country, so I can only hope the Trump effect cancels that out.

      The good news is the the bland uninspiring businessman beat out the literal crook for the gov nomination. Yes, these were the best the CT Dems could come up with :cookiemonster:

      The bad news is that the one guy on the ballot I was actually excited to vote for, for Attorney General, fell short.

      The ugly news is that on the GOP side, the gov nomination was won by the Trumpiest Trumpist of the lot.

      Dire times are ahead for Connecticut!

      Because I live right on the border with NY I regularly get ads for Cynthia Nixon for NY Governor, despite sadly being a Connecticunt and thus unable to vote for her. A shame, because while it's still a long bet for her to win, I would love it if she did.
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      The post was edited 1 time, last by Silver ().

    • As a Marylander, I’ve been seeing the same hitpiece of an ad against Ben Jealous for a while.

      It’s actually kind of funny, because it basically repeats the same two things over and over: He’s gonna cost mommy and daddy and baby an extra 3 grand per person, and the same exact clip of him calling himself a socialist... as if that’s supposed to be scary.

      Unfortunately I haven’t really been paying too close attention otherwise. I’ve generally been trying to stay away from politics or at least keep my mouth shut because I’ve become very prone to flying into a rage at the mere mention of certain political figures.
    • I've had a fever dream that the Dems take over congress, and some time later Trump and Pence get caught as co-conspirators in Russian election meddling, thereby getting them impeached and bumping up a liberal speaker of the house into the Oval Office. If's unrealistic and a process for such a thing would take months if not years.

      I consider myself mostly centrist, though I do lean towards the progressive side when it comes to civil liberties. I'm not sure what to make of some of the progressive candidates (i.e Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez), as I see some of their policies lacking substance, though I hope to see some good turnout come November.
    • How it'll all end up will depend on which side gets in the headlines more: if the media continue their general trend of instilling Trump Derangement Syndrome, it'll culminate in a blue wave as the answer to a "referendum on Trump". However, if enough blunders and big stories crop up about Democrat policies, Antifa marches, and socialists, then it'll become a referendum on the radicalization of the Democratic Party, and they'll lose.
    • LogicalPencils:

      The idea that the media is the only factor in an election is either ignorant or naive. It's ignoring literally thousands of volunteers who go door to door, who do phone banks or who are engaged in GOTV efforts. It further ignores both the parties and their ad buys which they invest millions of dollars into each cycle, as well as the planning they do at regional, state and national levels as well as the millions more they generate in fundraising. Thirdly the statement makes no acknowledgement of the rampant gerrymandering across the nation so which parties have engaged in to nudge the scales in their favour as well as the closing of polling stations and the increase of restrictions put upon voters in order to actually cast a ballot. Finally, and not the least of which, it ignores foreign and domestic interference in the elections: Americas voter rolls have been penetrated multiple times; American voting machines are vulnerable to being hacked; numerous states have poor ways or no way of auditing votes to ensure they're legitimate. The media absolutely plays a role in the election. Acting as though it is some sort of unified body or actively working against one person or party is ridiculous.

      Going off of that though, I'd like to address the idea that the Democratic party is in any way radical. The proposals being tossed around by a number of candidates (note: not even the party as a whole! Just a couple dozen candidates) range from lackluster to acceptable improvements. For example, Medicare For All - there is absolutely no argument that it would not result in billions saved every year on healthcare costs in the nation. It would result in millions of lives saved. It would mean hundreds of thousands of people would no longer be forced to go into bankruptcy merely to survive. There is a very clear argument that a socially liberal person can make and that a fiscally conservative person can make. Further still this proposal is incredibly popular:

      40% or (as in most cases) higher supports it right across the country! That's hardly radical or unpopular. Every nation in the West has a universal healthcare system, except the United States, because every other nation realises it works. That is just one of the policies proposals being kicked around - most of them are pretty popular whether we're talking about a minimum wage increase, eliminating college tuition, ending cash bail or a job guarantee. It's hard to call a party radical when it's delivering popular reform, particularly when none of the ideas are new in the West.

      srs tho

      logicalpencils wrote:

      Trump Derangement Syndrome

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    • Calm down.

      By "media" I didn't just mean the news channels -- I was referring to all the ways by which information concerning the parties/candidates are conveyed, and that I think that whichever side gets talked about more will lose. Things like parties advocating for themselves in various ways, and overtly left/right media, will play a part, but their parts are kind of baked in. It's the "mainstream", "middle of the road" media that can choose to talk about one or the other more, and there are stories and events that may happen leading into the election that can shock the headlines, etc.

      But yes I should have been more clear.

      As for unified media outlets against a certain party, well, there was that whole slew of editorial boards that coordinated with the Boston Globe condemning Trump's rhetoric about the press. Now you can agree with the sentiment, and think that the papers are right to come out in opposition to the president on this matter. How good or bad what the Globe did and what a lot in the press do in regards to reporting on the president doesn't matter; the point is that it is true that there is a whole lot of active conflict between a large portion of the media outlets and the president.

      You can be radical and popular at the same time -- they're hardly contradictory terms. But while socialization of healthcare is certainly a very left policy, that wasn't what I meant by the radicalization of the party. I was referring more to things like intersectionality, calls for/acts of public harassment and violence, the presence of full-on remove-the-profit-motive-entirely socialists, and the growing sentiment that anyone who disagrees or has reservations about the left's policies must definitionally be racist/sexist/etc.

      The post was edited 4 times, last by logicalpencils ().

    • Silver wrote:

      Because I live right on the border with NY I regularly get ads for Cynthia Nixon for NY Governor, despite sadly being a Connecticunt and thus unable to vote for her. A shame, because while it's still a long bet for her to win, I would love it if she did.
      I'll be voting for Nixon, but I, too, doubt she'll topple Cuomo. He's got New York City pretty much on lockdown, and that's all that matters in a New York State election. He's not exactly a popular guy here in Western New York, but it hardly means a thing in the grand scheme of things.

      He's not even unanimously liked by Libs over here. While he's had some great policies over the years, there's also been plenty about him that I've disliked. There's been pretty undeniable corruption during his tenure as Governor, and he has an ugly track record of being an *** to the Native American tribes.

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    • With the state of the subway I'm surprised that Cuomo has a lock on NYC, my understanding is that the metro system has been largely neglected by Albany especially (where quite a bit of funding for the metro comes from) and that Cuomo is unpopular with many NYC residents for that reason - in Nixon's campaign I think one of her main planks is to increase subway funding, last I checked (I suppose this is to appeal to NYC residents who might otherwise be that "lock for Cuomo").

      The post was edited 1 time, last by Viajero de la Galaxia ().

    • I don't know too much about New York issues, but I did hear about the IDC and how Cuomo did nothing to stop these Democrats who were subverting the will of the New York voter, who voted for a Democratically controlled senate and received a Republican controlled senate because a group of 8 Democrats caucused with the Republicans despite still calling themselves Democrats.

      He only put his foot down and made them disband the IDC when he started getting pushed from the left. That alone should disqualify him as a Democratic leader.
    • ^ Trust me, he's done some good, but at his core he's a bum.

      Viajero de la Galaxia wrote:

      With the state of the subway I'm surprised that Cuomo has a lock on NYC, my understanding is that the metro system has been largely neglected by Albany especially (where quite a bit of funding for the metro comes from) and that Cuomo is unpopular with many NYC residents for that reason - in Nixon's campaign I think one of her main planks is to increase subway funding, last I checked (I suppose this is to appeal to NYC residents who might otherwise be that "lock for Cuomo").
      I mean, I'm all for it if that's the case. I just have my doubts because Cuomo has traditionally had a very strong presence in the boroughs, which can often be enough to claim all of NYS. He's had a dedicated outreach to inner cities, which is also why he's historically done very well in the city of Buffalo, but not so much the surrounding towns.

      I'm published! Check out -
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      Read the first five chapters for free

      The post was edited 1 time, last by Mirren ().

    • I think this is probably the best place to talk about this but the shit show surrounding NY-27 I think means it’s going to flip blue. As to why, here is the quick rundown.

      >NY primaries are in May or June. So GOP endorses Chris Collins who is currently under investigation for fraud. No surprise there.
      > Couple weeks ago Collins gets arrested for insider training. Most amazing blatantly obvious he did this timeline.
      > A couple days later while still saying he’s innocent, Collins announces he’s not running for re-election.
      >Shit hits the fan because he’s on the ballot so GOP starts looking for ways to get him off.
      > Only way to do that is by offloading him on a local office. No race in Clarence this year where he lives so that means someone would need to step down. Fat chance of that happening.
      > GOP looking to Eden which doesn’t have a residency requirement to run for office. Two open spots - clerk and assessor. Clerk already has Republican nomination. Assessor spot only open because previous one died of cancer two weeks ago.
      > Protests in Eden and Clarence. There is also precedent in NYS where this shit has been tried in the past and knocked down.
      > This means Collins probably will remain on ballot, and if GOP puts up another candidate it will be a write in. Which has troubles of own and splits the vote.
      > Democratic challenger has been hitting all around district. So between indictment, split votes and current bullshit, NY-27 has a 75 percent chance of flipping blue.

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    • In the most monumental upset since Ocasio-Cortez, Andrew Gillum has ascended from fourth in polls just one month prior to winning today's primary by almost 3 points for Florida governor on the Democratic side. Like Ocasio-Cortez he was the more progressive candidate, but this victory has a very contested race ahead in November. This has already been compared to Trump vs. Sanders in Florida (the GOP candidate is a Trump acolyte to put it politely), am I going to be watching this with a lot of interest.

      This may be a sea change in November - up until recently Rick Scott has been favored to win the senate seat currently occupied by Democrat Bill Nelson, but with someone like Andrew Gillum on the ballot for governor this could turn out democratic voters who otherwise would not vote and finally end Rick Scott politically, among the countless other Republicans down the ballot. Moderates simply don't inspire your base, you have to give them something to vote FOR. With this result alone I think the Democrats retaking the Senate has become more likely.

      The post was edited 2 times, last by Viajero de la Galaxia ().

    • Remember that this is the first election year that groups like Our Revolution are contesting and they're already having success against better funded candidates. This is only the beginning, the first steps of the progressive movement taking over the Democratic party. There have been loses, but also great successes and its very exciting and encouraging to see.