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Mario Mafia Madness - Trouble in Paradise (Day 5)
  • Yeah. Anything I ask has to have been answerable before 5 EDT on Thursday.
    ~~~
    Although postsocratics like St. Augustine and Judith Butler explored a diverse set of ethical and metaphysical ideas, their unifying feature as a movement was a principled refusal to speculate upon which of the four elements the world was made out of.
    ~~~


    boxes is the best human and I am going to get her a kitten or 2 kittens
  • The Missing Link wrote:

    Shayface wrote:

    @The Missing Link How do you think the Town should proceed? And who is on your personal scum list?
    <bias>I think we should proceed by lynching Foo.</bias> However, I'm going to answer that question here in a little bit after I get to the bottom of this quote-pile.
    As for who's on my list:

    Town: Captain Harrie, Blackbird, Boxes, Cody, Nafchacho, Shona, Kae, Sólsetur (in more or less decreasing order of confidence)
    Neutral: Malon, Allanon Avalon, Dark Link Reigns
    Possible Mafiosi: Foo, Linkle, Shayface, Hollowman

    This was my list as of N2. I've heard that Linkle has implied a commuter-like role since then, which might pull her off the list.

    With 21 players in the opening setup, I think we can expect 5-6 Mafia. With two down, we're looking for 3-4.

    I will explain further shenanigans later.


    Sólsetur wrote:

    @Foo @boxes @Cody @Captain Harrie what are your opinions on my post about Naf?

    Pinging you four in particular because you are all confirmed townie, or are in my eyes.

    @blackbird @Dark Link Reigns @The Missing Link interested in your opinions as well, as the three of your have lesser claims to being townie in my eyes (though, TML, i admit that your claim is weakest and im just going on my gut here)
    See above in my list. I believe Naf is Town with reasonable confidence. A lot of this boils down to her being very early on the Axius lynch. Granted, he did unvote at some point, but he was second on the initial lynch wagon before going off to someone else. I recognise that's weak evidence and that I could be incorrect about Naf. However, again, Naf plays the game extremely differently to how I believe the game goes. He pings my scumdar strongly when she's Town. Incredibly hard to read. Somewhat antagonistic even on occasions when such a response isn't necessary. My personal read on him is scum every time I play with him, but going by the votes, I'm reasonably inclined to say that he's not a viable Mafioso unless the evidence changes.

    Shona wrote:

    On the contrary, I think we need to be careful we don't claim or we risk giving away too much to the mafia. Yesterday English was pretty unsubtle with his hints that he had some sort of investigative role, and Cody and Harrie both claimed. That's on top of boxes who claimed on day one, plus those who have made soft claims or given hints. Remember that if too many people claim, it narrows the pool for the mafia to be able to find the doc or cop or other power roles.
    I agree.

    Shona wrote:

    [vote]The Missing Link[/vote]
    <3

    Foo wrote:

    90% of what you've posted this game, @Foo, has largely been what I could see excerpted from your Mafia-a-Day calendar. It's been a rather clinical analysis into which arguments work and which arguments don't. It has not, however, been indicative as to which players you trust and which ones you don't, about which players you believe to be Town and which you believe to be Mafia.
    I believe myself to be town with probability ~1I believe Harrie to be town with probability >0.95.
    I believe boxes to be town with a probability ~0.9. This is a base rate: Mafia gambit on the order of what this would be happen on day one in fewer than 1/10 of games.
    I believe blackbird to be not mafia with probability ~0.9 (let's say a 0.81/0.9 split between town and third party). This is lower than my base rate for players confirmed by a lie detector, based on English's history.
    I believe another player, who I will not identify, to be not mafia with probability ~0.9 for reasons I'm not disclosing.

    Overall, this means that I judge the probability that there is one mafia member among this group of five to be 26.7%. That there are two mafia membes, 3.78%. That there are three mafia members, 0.23%. That there are four mafia members, 0.005%. My expectation value is that there are 0.35 mafia members among this group.

    Now then, that leaves 12 of 17 players remaining. If we assume that 1/3 (n=7) were mafia to begin with, 2 have died and 0.35 have been accounted for. In order to avoid a dutch booking, I necessarily believe that there are 4.65 mafia members in this group of 12. That is, on average any one of the 12 has a 38.5% chance of being mafia.

    There is no member of this group who I believe is mafia at a credence greater than 43.5%. There is no member of this group who I believe is mafia at a credence less that 33.5%. That is to say, my expectations for all members fall within five percentage points of the mean. This difference is not significant enough to motivate me to action.

    This is the most actionable account of beliefs that has been provided in this game. It is probably the only non-dutch-able read list in ZU's history. Still, I doubt it will satisfy, somehow. I'd like to talk about the issues of phrasing degree of belief, in particular, more extensively after the game.

    ---

    Your central complaint seems less to be that I don't account for my beliefs, and more that I don't postulate substantial differences in credit to the innocence of players in the absence of information derived from game mechanics. Or, perhaps, that I don't act substantially on the basis of the small differences I *do* recognize.

    If it is the former, then I'll direct you to the conversation I had with Harrie yesterday. The idea that players can reliably differentiate mafia members from town members in the absence of the assistance of game mechanics is not well statistically established. From the global perspective which I enjoy as a community leader, I see the results of player "reads" and the "gambits" of the style English attempted yesterday pay no measurable dividend game in and game out. Based on my distribution above, I'm actually attributing 0.6 bits of information-generating power to my own ability to identify scum traits in the absence of GM information, which is *ridiculously* overconfident in a historical sense.

    If it's the latter then we might disagree as a matter of strategic evaluation, and that's more fair. We have different experiences in different mafia communities. In my experience, Mafia is rarely decided by the accumulation of small advantages earned by playing the odds and much more often decided by the incidentals in the set-up going into the final days. The 6 or 7 percentage point advantage I give Kae and Sol over Naf or Shay would decide my action in the absence of any other consideration, but it pales in comparison to my desire to set up a town-favorable LyLo.

    I do not see you acting in a way that is attempting to deduce who is Mafia.
    This is funny, because as I judge it I'm one of the only people acting in a way that is attempting to deduce who is mafia.Most people are waiting to hear dog whistles.
    But our ability to "deduce" who is mafia is not a function of our ability to hear dog whistles, it's a function of the tools we have access too. I am one of the few players who has made a concerted effort, across the course of the game, to increase the number of tools we have access to. I turned our lie detector into a cop (with credit due to Boxes and small parts played by others). I made sure we had high quality information from English so that his death didn't immediately lead to (what would have in all likelihood been) a mislynch of Shona. I'm doing my best to weed out the sorts of mechanical confusion which has cost town games in the past.

    I have a poor lynch record. I had a lynch record poor enough to warrant my wagon day two, and expected that wagon. I can't argue that that record has gotten worse. That's all really well and good, and if you vote for me on those terms then so be it. But I'm not much interested in the back-justification of the vote that goes beyond my lynch record and implies that I don't have a good grasp of town strategy. That uses town's significant luck (because let's be serious and not pretend that the ID lynch was anything but) and results-oriented thinking to imply that I'm somehow passive or unaccountably wishy-washy.

    I'm less confident than average because the average level of confidence in a mafia game is horribly over inflated.
    I was hoping it wasn't going to have to come to this given the state of affairs, but I don't think I can justify holding off any longer.
    Let's approach this from a different, more statistical argument.

    You made a killing action last night.

    You claimed that you performed a Night One action and that your action went through.

    Now, we can deduce from this a handful of possibilities:

    1. You are a vig. However, because you were presumably the Nexus for the night, no one could roleblock you. Which means your target went through, naturally. Which means that you made the lone kill revealed in the morning. But that kill was janitored, which means you must be a janitoring vig, which seems much more chaotic than I'd like to imagine. So I personally dismiss this as a reasonable possibility.

    2. You are a serial killer. Which again, we arrive at a similar capacity: You are also a janitor. More plausible in this case, but based upon that action, you should die.

    3. You are Mafia. At which point, you either made the kill on N1 and thus are the Mafia Janitor or you have some other ability which doesn't matter. You should die.

    To me, there is a ~0.95 chance that you're lying your face off with your ~1 probability that you're Town.

    Now there is a possibility that I was redirected, naturally. However, because Kae knew that she was redirected on N1, I would hope that the mechanics of the game would cause me to know that I was similarly redirected. I can't know if that's how the game works or not, but there you go. There's the plausible deniability.

    Get out of town, Foo.

    Also, thanks for killing my brother.
    Oh? This doesn't surprise me at all. I've had my suspicions about him for quite some time.

    [vote] Foo [/vote]

    Yes! For once I get to be around when something big happens!!!

    Foo wrote:

    I did not make a killing action last night. I am the Oracle.

    Each night I am allowed to ask one questions concerning the set-up (as it was before any roles were assigned) and I receive a yes, no, or # answer. The first night I asked "Is there a mechanic in this game concerned with veracity of player's statements?". The answer was yes.
    Last night I asked "Is there an anti-town role which can prompt the GM to post messages in the day thread?". The answer was no.

    The former question is what prompted me to invest considerable energy on Day two into townie/no-a-townie and make statements like "I'm emphatically *not* going to be voting for anyone with a linked name on this list. Especially given the presence of redirection, I feel that this is a pretty essential stance in favour of our long term prospects." The latter question was set by my interaction with Cody yesterday, and my hinting that the reporter role had an eventual pay off.

    This game seems to be a war between informative roles and mis-information. The Mafia have (at least) a nexus ability to randomize results, a Janitor ability to keep us from seeing flips, a vanilla-izer to punish claims and information sharing, and a Godfather. We have (at least) a watcher (confirmed by GM flip), a lie detector (confirmed by GM flip), and a cop (strongly indicated by the presence of the GF) as well as, apparently, a follower in TML. I don't know if I was framed or TML was redirected or has a sanity percentage or what, but this is a testable claim (assuming someone has kept enough information secret that they can quiz me on it) so I'd rather be held accountable to my actions.

    I'll take questions.
    Problem for you is, "pal", we lynched the Nexus Maker guy on Day 2. So you couldn't have been Nexus'd.
    Assuming the Nexus thing is like a Lightning Rod, what are the odds we have another Lighting Rod/redirector scum in this town?

    Doesn't seem likely to me.


    HollowmanOfEoL wrote:

    The Missing Link wrote:

    This was my list as of N2. I've heard that Linkle has implied a commuter-like role since then, which might pull her off the list.
    Linke stated the commuter part was from the item that Kae apparently gave her.With the whole Gate F or whatever it was.




    E-gate. It was an e-gate.




    The Missing Link wrote:

    You made a killing action last night.
    Are you talking about N2?If so, then I'll vote Foo cause he be scum yo!
    Uhm, why would Night 2 make him scum and not Night One? Since apparently the redirection was aimed at me on Night 1 (hence the e-gate), it's unlikely Foo would have received the same treatment.
    Thus he would still be guilty.

    Captain Harrie wrote:

    the reason i'm unsure is because we can't see the answer you're given - so i'd rather test it with a question i know the answer to.

    Foo wrote:

    I'd really love it if the question could go to you or Boxes, Harrie, given that the Mafia has already committed to having you two around as vanillas, but I also really want the question to have a numerical answer rather than a binary yes/no so that I can avoid accusations of just playing the odds.
    If we end up with TML being lynched tonight somehow instead of Foo, then I want him answering Harrie's question, as she clearly knows something to ask that will get him caught red-handed in a lie if he's false-claiming.

    Malon wrote:

    Alright, I'm almost all the way caught up and I've almost got a read list finished. Though, I was just wondering because I keep seeing the phrase Here, what's it mean when someone says "I'm a Townie, I'm not a Townie"? Isn't that rather contradictory?
    That's a meme, a statement to be tested by a lie detector. Nothing more.

    Celebrating 3 whole years of ZU membership -- 8/22/2015 - 8/22/2018
  • I would assume so, given the role as written. Will ask.
    ~~~
    Although postsocratics like St. Augustine and Judith Butler explored a diverse set of ethical and metaphysical ideas, their unifying feature as a movement was a principled refusal to speculate upon which of the four elements the world was made out of.
    ~~~


    boxes is the best human and I am going to get her a kitten or 2 kittens
  • My role PM, including flavor text, when copied into this counter returns 680 characters. If we establish that there is a 100 character range from this then even if you allow for 2 character error in either direction based on the selection of paragraph breaks or whatever I would have less than a 1 in 20 shot of guessing correctly.

    Good enough for a social scientist :P
    ~~~
    Although postsocratics like St. Augustine and Judith Butler explored a diverse set of ethical and metaphysical ideas, their unifying feature as a movement was a principled refusal to speculate upon which of the four elements the world was made out of.
    ~~~


    boxes is the best human and I am going to get her a kitten or 2 kittens
  • Cody wrote:

    [unvote]The Missing Link[/unvote]
    [vote]Linkle[/vote]

    Linkle are you the Mafia
    I'm not Mafia, okay?
    Why would I even BE Mafia? Because I voted Foo? I'm just going with my gut here and the fact that I believe TML is telling the truth.

    If you've got reason to believe Foo is town, then by all means, please tell me. But until then I'm sticking with my feelings and TML's claim.

    If you guys want to vote me, go ahead, but I'm a Townie just like you and you'll just be letting a person who is in all likelihood a killer go free.

    I have somewhere to be now. Don't be surprised if I don't make it back before EoD, but I certainly will try.

    Celebrating 3 whole years of ZU membership -- 8/22/2015 - 8/22/2018
  • Linkle wrote:

    If you've got reason to believe Foo is town, then by all means, please tell me. But until then I'm sticking with my feelings and TML's claim.
    Did you not see Foo's roleclaim?? I would say that that is good proof as it aligns with his actions in the game.
    "Time passes, people move.... Like a rivers flow, it never ends... A childish mind will turn to noble ambition... Young love will become deep affection... The clear water's surface reflects growth..."

    Saving a link here: Mafia XI: Ace Attorney -- Night Four: Serial Killers and Serial Gamblers.

    "you came up with the idea, so youre the genius here"
    ~Malia

    "F*** you, you ain't no Barnes. Yousa scrub, honey."
  • Foo wrote:

    My role PM, including flavor text, when copied into this counter returns 680 characters. If we establish that there is a 100 character range from this then even if you allow for 2 character error in either direction based on the selection of paragraph breaks or whatever I would have less than a 1 in 20 shot of guessing correctly.

    Good enough for a social scientist :P
    Unless I can think of something better I think this is reasonable .... the issue being if someone on Mafia side has access to flavor info? Vet players, how likely is this?
  • none, @boxes role pms aren't revealed until the end of the game, all info wrt to roles is either suggestions as to what someone's role or character is like "it smells clinical", "it's a surgical knife" [doctor] if you're a flavour cop or a thief, or they're told the name of the role explicitly if they're a role cop.
    the only person who gets to read their role pm is the player themself, as quoting it is against the rules

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