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Mario Mafia Madness - Trouble in Paradise (Day 5)
  • 90% of what you've posted this game, @Foo, has largely been what I could see excerpted from your Mafia-a-Day calendar. It's been a rather clinical analysis into which arguments work and which arguments don't. It has not, however, been indicative as to which players you trust and which ones you don't, about which players you believe to be Town and which you believe to be Mafia.

    I believe myself to be town with probability ~1
    I believe Harrie to be town with probability >0.95.
    I believe boxes to be town with a probability ~0.9. This is a base rate: Mafia gambit on the order of what this would be happen on day one in fewer than 1/10 of games.
    I believe blackbird to be not mafia with probability ~0.9 (let's say a 0.81/0.9 split between town and third party). This is lower than my base rate for players confirmed by a lie detector, based on English's history.
    I believe another player, who I will not identify, to be not mafia with probability ~0.9 for reasons I'm not disclosing.

    Overall, this means that I judge the probability that there is one mafia member among this group of five to be 26.7%. That there are two mafia membes, 3.78%. That there are three mafia members, 0.23%. That there are four mafia members, 0.005%. My expectation value is that there are 0.35 mafia members among this group.

    Now then, that leaves 12 of 17 players remaining. If we assume that 1/3 (n=7) were mafia to begin with, 2 have died and 0.35 have been accounted for. In order to avoid a dutch booking, I necessarily believe that there are 4.65 mafia members in this group of 12. That is, on average any one of the 12 has a 38.5% chance of being mafia.

    There is no member of this group who I believe is mafia at a credence greater than 43.5%. There is no member of this group who I believe is mafia at a credence less that 33.5%. That is to say, my expectations for all members fall within five percentage points of the mean. This difference is not significant enough to motivate me to action.

    This is the most actionable account of beliefs that has been provided in this game. It is probably the only non-dutch-able read list in ZU's history. Still, I doubt it will satisfy, somehow. I'd like to talk about the issues of phrasing degree of belief, in particular, more extensively after the game.

    ---

    Your central complaint seems less to be that I don't account for my beliefs, and more that I don't postulate substantial differences in credit to the innocence of players in the absence of information derived from game mechanics. Or, perhaps, that I don't act substantially on the basis of the small differences I *do* recognize.

    If it is the former, then I'll direct you to the conversation I had with Harrie yesterday. The idea that players can reliably differentiate mafia members from town members in the absence of the assistance of game mechanics is not well statistically established. From the global perspective which I enjoy as a community leader, I see the results of player "reads" and the "gambits" of the style English attempted yesterday pay no measurable dividend game in and game out. Based on my distribution above, I'm actually attributing 0.6 bits of information-generating power to my own ability to identify scum traits in the absence of GM information, which is *ridiculously* overconfident in a historical sense.

    If it's the latter then we might disagree as a matter of strategic evaluation, and that's more fair. We have different experiences in different mafia communities. In my experience, Mafia is rarely decided by the accumulation of small advantages earned by playing the odds and much more often decided by the incidentals in the set-up going into the final days. The 6 or 7 percentage point advantage I give Kae and Sol over Naf or Shay would decide my action in the absence of any other consideration, but it pales in comparison to my desire to set up a town-favorable LyLo.

    I do not see you acting in a way that is attempting to deduce who is Mafia.

    This is funny, because as I judge it I'm one of the only people acting in a way that is attempting to deduce who is mafia.
    Most people are waiting to hear dog whistles.
    But our ability to "deduce" who is mafia is not a function of our ability to hear dog whistles, it's a function of the tools we have access too. I am one of the few players who has made a concerted effort, across the course of the game, to increase the number of tools we have access to. I turned our lie detector into a cop (with credit due to Boxes and small parts played by others). I made sure we had high quality information from English so that his death didn't immediately lead to (what would have in all likelihood been) a mislynch of Shona. I'm doing my best to weed out the sorts of mechanical confusion which has cost town games in the past.

    I have a poor lynch record. I had a lynch record poor enough to warrant my wagon day two, and expected that wagon. I can't argue that that record has gotten worse. That's all really well and good, and if you vote for me on those terms then so be it. But I'm not much interested in the back-justification of the vote that goes beyond my lynch record and implies that I don't have a good grasp of town strategy. That uses town's significant luck (because let's be serious and not pretend that the ID lynch was anything but) and results-oriented thinking to imply that I'm somehow passive or unaccountably wishy-washy.

    I'm less confident than average because the average level of confidence in a mafia game is horribly over inflated.
    ~~~
    Although postsocratics like St. Augustine and Judith Butler explored a diverse set of ethical and metaphysical ideas, their unifying feature as a movement was a principled refusal to speculate upon which of the four elements the world was made out of.
    ~~~


    boxes is the best human and I am going to get her a kitten or 2 kittens
  • It's true that on average, reads are pretty... average, but that's not the same thing as solid reads not being possible or achieveable. It's just that people tend to treat reads as a magic wand rather than as behavioral analysis.

    If it was all solely a guessing game everyone's Town voting record would achieve about the same accuracy and that's just not the case. We have a pretty consistent variation by player, implying that behavioral and language analysis is a skill.
  • We have a pretty consistent variation by player, implying that behavioral and language analysis is a skill.

    Do we? We have *narratives* about consistent variation by player, but not numerical analysis. People rarely voice the full extent of their suspicious publicly: most of what we hear is a celebration of success. If players were to regularly rigorously describe their beliefs about player alignment we could endeavor to answer the questions, but they don't. That just really remember that one time where they were "hot".
    ~~~
    Although postsocratics like St. Augustine and Judith Butler explored a diverse set of ethical and metaphysical ideas, their unifying feature as a movement was a principled refusal to speculate upon which of the four elements the world was made out of.
    ~~~


    boxes is the best human and I am going to get her a kitten or 2 kittens
  • Anyway, that wasn't a great post but it was what came out. The distances in belief between me and other players just feel way, way too large sometimes. S'past my bed time, so I'll pick this up in the morning.
    ~~~
    Although postsocratics like St. Augustine and Judith Butler explored a diverse set of ethical and metaphysical ideas, their unifying feature as a movement was a principled refusal to speculate upon which of the four elements the world was made out of.
    ~~~


    boxes is the best human and I am going to get her a kitten or 2 kittens
  • So I looked at the ending votes for both lynches. If we are going to vote based on voting record (which isn't a bad idea at this point):

    Voted for ID and Axius
    -Shona
    -HollowmanOfEoL

    Voted for Axius only
    -Captain Harrie
    -Kae
    -Cody
    -Foo
    -The Missing Link
    -Sólsetur
    -Nafchacho
    -blackbird

    Voted for ID only
    -boxes
    -DLR
    -Kay Faraday
    -Allanon Avalon

    That leaves:
    -Linkle
    -Shayface
    -Malon

    As those who were not part of major scum lynches.

    Linkle
    Day 1 abstained
    Day 2 voted Foo (stated that she was away for EOD)

    Shayface
    Day 1 voted DLR
    Day 2 voted Kay Faraday (also away for EOD)

    Malon
    Day 1 abstained
    Day 2 abstained

    If we go by this I think the next logical vote would be for Malon. She has been away for the majority of both days and has contributed very little. It's rather frustrating.

    Then I believe the vig should look at taking a shot at Linkle (or a cop investigation maybe?)

    I don't think the vig should shoot me, because they would not be doing themselves and the town much good.

    Thats my two cents
    "Time passes, people move.... Like a rivers flow, it never ends... A childish mind will turn to noble ambition... Young love will become deep affection... The clear water's surface reflects growth..."

    Saving a link here: Mafia XI: Ace Attorney -- Night Four: Serial Killers and Serial Gamblers.

    "you came up with the idea, so youre the genius here"
    ~Malia

    "F*** you, you ain't no Barnes. Yousa scrub, honey."
  • boxes wrote:

    @Shayface

    I doubt the ending votes on Axius mean anything considering the counterclaim that prompted them. Better to look at those on Axius before the claim IMO.
    It was just Harrie before the counterclaim. That puts a hack of a lot more people on my list I guess. But the three I mentioned specifically still have the worst record based on voting and overall activity.


    Allanon Avalon wrote:

    Allanon Avalon wrote:

    @Shayface As she previously stated multiple times, Linkle was away for Day 1 trying to get treatment for a family member. I'd say give her some more time to appear and do things, rather than jump on her so quickly.
    I missed that. Many apologies @Linkle

    My suggestion to lynch Malon still stands

    [Vote]Malon[/Vote]
    "Time passes, people move.... Like a rivers flow, it never ends... A childish mind will turn to noble ambition... Young love will become deep affection... The clear water's surface reflects growth..."

    Saving a link here: Mafia XI: Ace Attorney -- Night Four: Serial Killers and Serial Gamblers.

    "you came up with the idea, so youre the genius here"
    ~Malia

    "F*** you, you ain't no Barnes. Yousa scrub, honey."
  • I was doing something similar to Shayface, looking at voting records, but I was more interested in who voted for Axius before Axius claimed watcher. The votes at the end aren't as significant because Axius got counter-claimed and at that point he was pretty much doomed.

    Voted for ID: boxes, Shona, Dark Link Reigns, Kay Faraday, HollowmanOfEoL, Allanon Avalon
    Voted for Axius, before Axius claimed: Cody, Nafchacho, Captain Harrie, Solsetur

    Two completely different groups there. So who's missing? blackbird, Foo, Kae, Linkle, Malon, Shayface, TML

    The list above is a good place to look for scum. (I'm also aware that some scum will have mostly likely been on those wagons.) Blackbird is almost certainly town. I don't think Kae is scum based on her soft inventor claim that linkle and harrie have substantiated. I lean toward town for Foo as well. That leaves Linkle, Malon, Shayface, and TML. I don't have much of a read on Linkle right now. Malon I’m clueless on, Shay I'm on the fence about because he's been pretty quiet, and as I mentioned earlier today I've been suspicious of TML based on his voting of Axius day one and then not mentioning it again in his early posts on day two, reluctance to vote Axius once Axius became a viable wagon, plus he attempted to start a wagon for Cody on day 2 whom I now believe to be town.

    We also have English confirmed as a townie, so who was voting for him yesterday? And I'll take it a step further and assume blackbird is a confirmed townie too.

    Voted for English: Solsetur, HollowmanEoL, blackbird
    Voted for blackbird while English was baiting: Dark Link Reigns, Cody, Shona, The Missing Link

    Didn't vote day 1: Malon, Linkle
    Didn't vote day 2: Malon

    In this group, the names that match the "didn't vote for ID or Axius" list are TML, Malon and Linkle.

    Sorry love, I hate doing this :(


    [vote]The Missing Link[/vote]
    A famous explorer once said, that the extraordinary is in what we do, not who we are.


  • Sólsetur wrote:

    @Shayface what is your opinion on Naf? (Refer to my previous post for stuff on him)
    Based on this game, he's seemed a little off. I've seen him be kind of impulsive and quick to act. But this game in particular he's been on the peripheral in my opinion. It's kinda scummy to me, but I wouldn't flat out say that he is mafia based on this observation.
    "Time passes, people move.... Like a rivers flow, it never ends... A childish mind will turn to noble ambition... Young love will become deep affection... The clear water's surface reflects growth..."

    Saving a link here: Mafia XI: Ace Attorney -- Night Four: Serial Killers and Serial Gamblers.

    "you came up with the idea, so youre the genius here"
    ~Malia

    "F*** you, you ain't no Barnes. Yousa scrub, honey."
  • Well I'm going to sign off for tonight. I'll be up in 7 hours and be around for maybe and hour and then I have work until EOD. I should hopefully be able to answer questions, contribute my thoughts, and place a final vote at that point. Goodnight all.
    "Time passes, people move.... Like a rivers flow, it never ends... A childish mind will turn to noble ambition... Young love will become deep affection... The clear water's surface reflects growth..."

    Saving a link here: Mafia XI: Ace Attorney -- Night Four: Serial Killers and Serial Gamblers.

    "you came up with the idea, so youre the genius here"
    ~Malia

    "F*** you, you ain't no Barnes. Yousa scrub, honey."
  • @ The folks with the vote lists

    I'd like to reiterate that Kay Faraday was on the ID wagon because her wagon was the alternative lynch on D1. She specifically stated (when asked) that she was voting to save herself. It would have been weird not to do this, even if both her and ID were scum. If we're only looking at vote history, I would personally group her with those on neither the ID nor the Axius wagon.

    That being said, she ain't my top lynch choice for today. I would be more supportive of a TML lynch - same reasons stated yesterday, not cooperative with the meme.
  • Finally caught up and I realize the quotes I have been saving up is not there anymore.
    Gfdi.

    I'll skimm through the last 8?9? pages for those posts and I'll get back to those.


    I'm leaning towards putting pressure on TML today.
    I'm up for a Malon lynch due to the reasons everyone seems to have on her.

    Oh! Before I forget, Sol. Great RP post. Didnt read anything in it, besides I R townie/not. :)

    As I said, I'll be back with some quotes and replies and such in a few.
  • I found fewer quotes than I expected. Thought I had more. Maybe it was fluff. Idk.


    Foo wrote:

    I think I've answered the "who do you want to lynch" question frequently, including here, here and here. The answer I gave to Cody two hours ago stands: I'm up to lynch anyone who did not make a lie-detectable statement before the death of the lie detector, with a rough preference ordering given to those candidates (Malon first, Sol last, little differentiation between you, Hollowman, TML).
    I did supply the magic words on day one. Sure it was in a sentence, but I don't really know how a lie detector chooses his testing sentences.
    Thought I did supply it in its true form, for what it's worth.
    And I supplied it on day two, when this all came to light. ... For what it's worth.


    Here is a vote count! (Should be accurate up to my post at 1219, if there are other posters since then)
    TML: Cody, Nafchacho, Shona, BlackBird
    DLR: Kay Faraday
    Foo: TML
    Nafchacho: Sol
    Sol: Kae
    Malon: Shayface


    Reads list:
    Good : Me
    Prob good+ : Harrie, BlackBird, Cody
    Prob good : Sol, DLR
    Neutral : Foo, Boxes, Kae, Kay Faraday, Linkle,
    Prob bad : Shona, Shayface, Nafchacho, Allanon
    Prob bad- : Malon, TML
    Bad :

    I would like to put Foo in the Prob Good area, but I can't really shake that gut feeling...
    Malon is in the Prob Bad- area due to being not here. :)

    That's it for now. I'm going to do some research... Both game wise and IRL.
    SCIENCE! :D

    Edit: Removed a faulty bolding
    Signature made by Sólsetur

    The post was edited 1 time, last by HollowmanOfEoL ().